TOPIC: ARGUMENT209 - The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.
"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."
WORDS: 479 TIME: 00:40:00 DATE: 2011-4-10 15:56:03
In this argument, the author concludes that they should appoint Rosa Winnings who is currently president of a toy company whose profits have increased dramatically to replace their current president Pat Salvo for the reason that the profits of their company have fallen considerably. At first glance, this argument seems to be convincing, but further reflection reveals that these evidences neither constitute a logical statement in support of its conclusion nor providing compelling support making this argument sound and invulnerable.
The threshold problem with this argument is that the author assumes that it is Pat's responsibility for FTC's declining profits. Although this is entirely possible, the argument lacks evidence to confirm this assumption. It is most likely that the cause of FTC's declining profits is the increase of the cost of materials or labor forces, the seasonal sales and the less popularity of toys at present. It is also possible that the problems were developed before Pat took the position and her efforts have made the loss level at the bottom. Until the author provides further evidence to exclude all these concerns, it is unfounded to reach the conclusion involved in the argument.
The second flaw that weakens the logic of this argument is that the author assumes that the profitability of SJ is primarily the feat of Rose. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that it is necessarily case and it is quite possible that all jewelry businesses bare prospered recently, the costs of precious metals and other materials have declined in recent years. It is also possible that Rosa has served as president of SJ for only a short while, and it was her predecessor who is to credit for SJ's profitability. In short , without better evidence ruling out these and other alternative explanations, it is reasonable to cast considerable doubt on this assumption.
The last but not the least important , even if the author can substantiate all of the foregoing assumptions, no evidence shows Rosa is competent in the position of Pat. Jewelry and toy are tow different industries which require different sales strategy, management policies and advertising campaigns, and thus Rosa might not have clear about running a company of toys as she might have no experience and skills in this field. Maybe the increase in profit might take place in a long time and short-term dramatic rise might not be happen as the change of the policies and strategies need time to take into effect. What more, Other candidates might be more suitable for the position, under which scenario, adopting the author's proposal might harm rather than benefit.
To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. Therefore, if the author had considered the given factors discussed above, the argument would have been more through and logically acceptable.